Modelling interdecadal climate variability and the role of the ocean

摘要: To estimate the anthropogenic contribution to climate signals in recent past and future decades implies a certain degree of confidence both understanding simulating natural internal variability at interdecadal time scales. If we are embark on challenge decadal prediction, must be able mechanistically attribute events known processes phenomena, reproduce their features statistics within our models. date, models have succeeded reproducing only partially spatial patterns, climatic impacts modes variability. Reasons for partial success agreement among attributed short observational record, different complex flavours coupling between many subcomponents system, present inability resolve all processes. At an even more fundamental level, this difficulty is aggravated by limited physical mechanisms involved. Here, review proposed giving rise variability, discuss hypotheses explaining main overview ability level simulation latest generation coupled achieve any progress, modeling community should focus improving representation parameterization key ocean obtaining firmer grasp generating Both goals can benefit from process studies, intercomparisons with perturbation experiments study model's sensitivities, use hierarchy WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e441. doi: 10.1002/wcc.441 For further resources related article, please visit website.