Improved estimation of intrinsic growthrmaxfor long-lived species: integrating matrix models and allometry

作者: David Fletcher , Enric Cortés , K. Alexandra Curtis , Kelsey C. James , Rebecca L. Lewison

DOI: 10.1890/14-1990

关键词:

摘要: Intrinsic population growth rate (r(max)) is an important parameter for many ecological applications, such as risk assessment and harvest management. However, r(max) can be a difficult to estimate, particularly long-lived species, which appropriate life table data or abundance time series are typically not obtainable. We describe method improving estimates of species by integrating life-history theory (allometric models) population-specific demographic (life models). Broad allometric relationships, those between history traits body size, have long been recognized ecologists. These relationships useful deriving theoretical expectations r(max), but real populations may vary from simple estimators "archetypical" given taxa mass. Meanwhile, approaches provide empirical data, these poor precision imprecise missing vital estimates. Our borrows strength both that consistent with likely more robust than provided either alone. uses an' constant: the product associated generation stable-age growing at this rate. conducted meta-analysis estimate mean variance constant across well-studied three vertebrate (birds, mammals, elasmobranchs) found was approximately 1.0 each taxon. used informative Bayesian priors determine how much "shrink" data-limited toward expectation. The approach ultimately provides (and other rates) reflect balance information individual studied population, expectation, populations. applied specifically archetypical petrel (representing genus Procellaria) white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) in context estimating sustainable-fishery bycatch limits.

参考文章(53)
David J. Lunn, Andrew Thomas, Nicky Best, David Spiegelhalter, WinBUGS – A Bayesian modelling framework: Concepts, structure, and extensibility Statistics and Computing. ,vol. 10, pp. 325- 337 ,(2000) , 10.1023/A:1008929526011
Eric L. Charnov, Reproductive effort is inversely proportional to average adult life span Evolutionary Ecology Research. ,vol. 7, pp. 1221- 1222 ,(2005)
Francis Clark, Barry W. Brook, Steven Delean, H. Reşit Akçakaya, Corey J. A. Bradshaw, The theta-logistic is unreliable for modelling most census data Methods in Ecology and Evolution. ,vol. 1, pp. 253- 262 ,(2010) , 10.1111/J.2041-210X.2010.00029.X
Jim Hone, Richard P. Duncan, David M. Forsyth, Estimates of maximum annual population growth rates (rm) of mammals and their application in wildlife management Journal of Applied Ecology. ,vol. 47, pp. 507- 514 ,(2010) , 10.1111/J.1365-2664.2010.01812.X
R LEWISON, L CROWDER, A READ, S FREEMAN, Understanding impacts of fisheries bycatch on marine megafauna Trends in Ecology and Evolution. ,vol. 19, pp. 598- 604 ,(2004) , 10.1016/J.TREE.2004.09.004
Richard M Sibly, Daniel Barker, Michael C Denham, Jim Hone, Mark Pagel, On the Regulation of Populations of Mammals, Birds, Fish, and Insects Science. ,vol. 309, pp. 607- 610 ,(2005) , 10.1126/SCIENCE.1110760