Meeting the Mandate for Biofuels: Implications for Land Use, Food, and Fuel Prices

摘要: Biofuel production is being promoted through various policies such as mandates and tax credits. This paper uses a dynamic, spatial, multi-market equilibrium model, Environmental Policy Analysis Model (BEPAM), to estimate the effects of these on cropland allocation, food fuel prices, mix biofuels from corn cellulosic feedstocks over 2007-2022 period. We find that biofuel mandate will increase price by 24%, reduce gasoline 8% in 2022, social welfare $122 B (0.7%) relative Business As Usual scenario. The provision volumetric credits accompany significantly changes produced favor reduces share ethanol cumulative volume 50% 10%. adverse impact alone crop prices decrease biofuels. However, they impose cost $79 compared alone. These results are found be sensitive rate growth productivity, costs bioenergy crops, availability marginal land for producing crops.