CONFIDE: A Collective Decision-Making Procedure Using Confidence Estimates of Individual Judgements

作者: Dennis P Slevin , Larry W Boone , Eileen M Russo , Richard S Allen , None

DOI: 10.1023/A:1008650524782

关键词:

摘要: An algorithm (termed CONFIDE) is proposed that may capture many of the benefits group decision making without necessity face-to-face interaction. The allows individual makers to differentially weight contributions from members according confidence with which each member holds their opinions. CONFIDE compared both decisions and simple averaging opinions on Lost-at-Sea ranking task. Results indicate that, in terms quality, produces solutions equal method significantly better than solution achieved by responses.

参考文章(55)
Robert M. Hogarth, Methods for Aggregating Opinions Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs. pp. 231- 255 ,(1977) , 10.1007/978-94-010-1276-8_16
Nelson Phelps, Mountain Bell: program for managers Proceedings on Office workstations in the home. pp. 33- 37 ,(1985)
Norman Crolee Dalkey, Bernice B. Brown, S. W. Cochran, THE DELPHI METHOD, IV: EFFECT OF PERCENTILE FEEDBACK AND FEED-IN OF RELEVANT FACTS, RAND Corporation. ,(1970)
Ivan Dale Steiner, Group process and productivity ,(1972)
Andre L. Delbecq, Andrew H. Van de Ven, David H. Gustafson, Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes ,(1986)
Herbert A. Simon, Rational Decision-Making in Business Organizations The American Economic Review. ,vol. 69, pp. 493- 513 ,(1979)
J. William Pfeiffer, John E. Jones, The annual handbook for group facilitators University Associates. ,(1972)
George P. Huber, The Nature and Design of Post-Industrial Organizations Management Science. ,vol. 30, pp. 928- 951 ,(1984) , 10.1287/MNSC.30.8.928
Paul A. Mabe, Stephen G. West, Validity of self-evaluation of ability: A review and meta-analysis Journal of Applied Psychology. ,vol. 67, pp. 280- 296 ,(1982) , 10.1037/0021-9010.67.3.280