How Efficient is Contact Tracing in Mitigating the Spread of Covid-19? A Mathematical Modeling Approach

摘要: Contact Tracing (CT) is one of the measures taken by government and health officials to mitigate spread novel coronavirus. In this paper, we investigate its efficacy developing a compartmental model for assessing impact on mitigating virus. We describe reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_c$ Covid-19. particular, discuss importance relevance parameters such as reported cases, effectiveness tracking monitoring policy, transmission rates contact tracing. terms ``perfect tracking'', monitoring'' reporting'' indicate that traced contacts will be tracked while incubating, are efficiently monitored so they do not cause secondary infections, all infected persons reported, respectively. consider three special scenarios: (1) perfect case, (2) reporting cases (3) cases. Furthermore, gave lower bound proportion ensure effective reproduction, $\mathcal{R}_c$, below in observable quantities Model simulations using Covid-19 data obtained from John Hopkins University some selected states US suggest even late intervention CT may reasonably reduce peak hospitalizations deaths. our findings policy incubating more crucial than tracing contacts.