Modelled impacts of policies and climate change on land use and water quality in Austria

摘要: Abstract Climate change is a major driver of land use with implications for the quality and quantity water resources. We apply novel integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to analyze climate impacts until 2040 stakeholder driven scenarios on protection policies sustainable management resources in Austria. The IIMF mainly consists sequentially linked bio-physical process model EPIC, regional optimization PASMA[grid], quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel, nutrient emission MONERIS. Three identical temperature trends but diverging precipitation patterns shall represent uncertainty ranges from change, i.e. dry wet situation. Water are clustered two policy portfolios WAP_I WAP_II, which targeted regions (WAP_I) or applied at national scale (WAP_II). Policies cover agri-environmental programs legal standards tackle measures such as restrictions fertilizer, soil crop rotation well establishment buffer strips. Results show that average agricultural gross margin varies by ±2%, more pronounced particularly under scenario decreasing sums. can alleviate pressures compared business usual does not lead achievement environmental P all rivers. WAP_II further reduces total emissions higher private costs. At average, costs reducing loads surface waters 60–200 €/kg N 120–250 €/kg degree targeting drivers. To conclude, able capture interfaces between use, context. Despite efforts improve linkages robustness output, propagations frameworks need be tackled subsequent studies.