Reassessment of the Maximum Fault Rupture Length of Strike‐Slip Earthquakes and Inference on Mmax in the Anatolian Peninsula, Turkey

摘要: Seismic‐hazard analyses and stress tests for critical infrastructures show limitations in the treatment of extreme events. These events can be great earthquakes and/or their cascading effects, generally not foreseen risk analysis management (e.g., Komendantova et al. , 2014). For instance, earthquake ruptures are known to potentially propagate over several segments Eberhart‐Phillips 2003; Fliss 2005), yet fault still modeled as individual faults most regional seismic‐hazard models based on expert opinion limited paleoseismic data. Rate anomalies (known bulge) Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF2) part due neglect possible links between (Field 2009). Recent catastrophes, such 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku its consequences Norio 2011), have demonstrated need “a targeted reassessment safety margins” (European Nuclear Safety Regulators Group [ENSREG], 2011). The present study is designed address issue unforeseen (1) by proposing criteria rupture geometrical physical considerations (2) by assessing maximum magnitude ( max) these spanning hundreds kilometers. Focus strike‐slip mechanisms. Different definitions max been proposed assumption that no expected above threshold, observed magnitude, deterministic “maximum credible” (Reiter, 1990), statistical possible” (Kijko Singh, 2011). The predictive power approach has recently shown rather poor (Zoller 2013). Furthermore, Holschneider (2014) found it essentially impossible infer from catalogs alone. Our method assess directly related …