Trust and the value of overconfidence: a Bayesian perspective on social network communication

摘要: The paper presents and defends a Bayesian theory of trust in social networks. In the first part paper, we provide justifications for basic assumptions behind model, give reasons thinking that model has plausible consequences certain kinds communication. second investigate phenomenon overconfidence. Many psychological studies have found people think they are more reliable than actually are. Using simulation environment been developed order to make our computationally tractable show inquirers indeed sometimes better off from an epistemic perspective overestimating reliability their own inquiries. We also show, by contrast, rarely others. On basis these observations formulate novel hypothesis about value