Global solid biomass trade for energy by 2020: an assessment of potential import streams and supply costs to North‐West Europe under different sustainability constraints

摘要: The expected use of solid biomass for large-scale heat and power production across North–West Europe (NW EU) has led to discussions about its sustainability, especially due the increasing import dependence sector. While individual Member States companies have put forward sustainability criteria, it remains unclear how different requirements will influence availability cost thus specific regions satisfy their demand in a competitive global market. We combined geospatially explicit least-cost supply model with linear optimization solver assess trade streams by 2020 particular focus on NW EU. apply scenarios representing varying policy developments requirements. find that projected EU can be met all scenarios, almost exclusively via domestic biomass. exploitation agricultural residue energy crop potentials, however, need increase sharply. Given as liquid biofuels, extra-EU imports may reach 236 PJ 2020, i.e., 400% 2010 levels. Intra-EU is grow stricter up 548 PJ, 280% levels 2020. Increasing effects portfolios Excluding pulpwood pellets drive costs dependent countries, foremost Netherlands UK, whereas excluding additional forest entail higher Germany Denmark which rely regional fractions create short-term price hikes. Our modeling results are strongly influenced parameterization choices, assumed volumes relations between criteria supply. framework suited inclusion dynamic supply–demand interactions other world regions.