Impacts of the Outbreak and Proliferation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome on Rail Transit Ridership in the Seoul Metropolitan City

摘要: Globalization sometimes provides unexpected negative effects on public health because of the outbreak and proliferation avian infectious diseases resulting from more active inter-national movement people goods. Seoul had experienced MERS(Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). During its proliferation, citizens tried to avoid potential infection among people. One responses was take less rail transit. This study is aimed at identifying impacts MERS transit ridership by employing analyzing ARIMAX(autoregressive integrated moving average with external factors) modeling, based daily ridership. Analysis results demonstrate time, size, durability people"s response for MERS. First, time MERS’s differentiated travel purpose. Transit afternoon hours decreased right after it occur. However, decrease appeared when become severer. Second, reduction size in biggest number infected increase. Third, impact persistent than anytime else, even though not everlasting.