A framework for assessing threats and benefits to species responding to climate change

摘要: 1.?Current national and international frameworks for assessing threats to species have not been developed in the context of climate change, are framed a way that recognises new opportunities arise from change. 2.?The framework presented here separates benefits change individual species. Threat is assessed by level climate-related decline within species’ recently occupied (e.g. pre-1970s) historical distribution, based on observed repeat census) and/or projected changes modelled bioclimate space). Benefits terms increases outside range. 3.?Exacerbating factors small population size, low dispersal capacity) might increase levels threat or limit expansion response taken into consideration framework. Protocols also used identify confidence (and hence research monitoring needs) each assessment. 4.?Observed combined single measures expected increase, together with associated confidence. We weight risk classifications towards information most certain. Each then placed one six categories (high risk, medium limited impact, equivalent risks & benefits, benefit, high benefit) reflecting whether (or has observed) cause net declines region considered, balance threats. 5.?We illustrate feasibility using applying it (i) all British butterflies (N = 58 species) (ii) an additional sample species: 18 plants, bats, birds beetles. 6.?Synthesis. Our assesses It could be applied at any scale (regional, continental global distributions species), complements existing conservation assessment protocols such as red-listing. Using range data, feasible carry out systematic status assessments inform development monitoring, adaptation management planning responding