The Role of Speculation in Real Estate Cycles

摘要: Our study investigates the role of speculation in real estate cycles. We find that even a simple model lagged supply response to price changes and is sufficient generate Second, volatility prices – biggest purported downside “speculation” strongly related conditions. Even more interestingly, effect itself depends on Markets with responsive regulatory environments, or less natural constraint (from physical geography), will experience as well behavior characterized speculation. Demand conditions general, particular, can contribute boom bust cycle housing markets but effects appear be dominated by elasticity supply. In fact, largest are only observed when inelastic. Thus effective policies focus improving efficiency developable land, generally, including development an appropriate framework for estate.