Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties

摘要: Understanding the conditions under which state leaders are willing to honor alliance commitments in war will increase knowledge about escalation and diffusion of conflict propensity states fulfill agreements anarchy. New data analysis provides evidence that fulfilled 75 percent time. But how can one understand failure partners act as promised remaining 25 cases? Formal modelers have deduced because costs associated with alliances, who form alliances likely them; those formed should be fairly reliable. I argue, therefore, best account for violations either through an understanding factors reduce violation or changes occurred since was formed. Using detailed on between 1816 1944, find commensurate this argument. Changes power their policymaking processes powerful predictors past commitments; nondemocratic major powers, sets argue suffer lower from reneging agreements, more violate treaties.