Pay the farmer, or buy the land?—Cost-effectiveness of payments for ecosystem services versus land purchases or easements in Central Kenya

摘要: Abstract Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) have emerged as a popular conservation tool, yet evaluation alongside other direct strategies remains piecemeal. We prospectively compared cost-effectiveness of PES to Land Purchases or Easements (LPE) in Central Kenya. spatially predicted opportunity costs and land prices using household survey literature data, sampled management from four regional organizations. simulated fixed-budget, spatial ecological–economic site selection process intervention (PES LPE) over 30 years. included effects markets, property value fluctuations, rising agricultural productivity climate change. Depending on the scenario, LPE strategy led larger reserves (by 26%–610%), better representation mammal species' ranges 47%–112%) lower unit 26%–48%). Adding yearly egalitarian social development payment did not increase beyond basic model. Our findings were robust discount rate choice, but cost savings only materialized after about decade. Furthermore, Kenyan law restricts foreign ownership use easements, thus simpler institutional requirements make more immediate, if less effective, property-based tool.