Interannual atmospheric variability and associated fluctuations in Arctic Sea ice extent

摘要: Observational data are used to evaluate quantitatively the relationships between arctic sea ice extent and high-latitude atmospheric circulation on seasonal time scale. The set contains 300 monthly grids of observed concentrations. variables include level pressure, surface temperature, 700-mbar height, temperature. Statistically significant correlations dominant modes variability found at lags up 2 months 4 months. temperature field generally shows strongest relationship fluctuations. anomalies subsequent fluctuations in autumn increasing extent. Evidence ice-atmosphere coupling is also mid-latitude fields North Atlantic. meteorological difference derived from years extreme contain statistically pressure differences 10–15 mbar, 8°–9°K, height 16–18 decameters. anomaly centers tend migrate seasonally with edge. statistical predictability large-scale decays no skill a forecast interval 5–6