Integrating precipitation, grazing, past effects and interactions in long-term vegetation change

摘要: Abstract Determining the causes of vegetation change in arid and semi-arid environments can be difficult may involve multiple factors, including disturbance, inter-annual climatic variation, soils, effects from years past interactions between these factors. Theoretical models describing systems have generally focused on a single aspect as primary driver. The integration factors into model what is required to fully understand drivers desert systems. To test contributions various we analyzed long-term (1979–2011) dataset using linear regression. While precipitation livestock density were important variables for explaining change, consistency with which significantly improved underscores their importance. Past included every except shrub diversity, both effects. A novel approach addressing interaction grazing was by dividing stocking density. Grass had high positive correlation this metric, while cover small negative correlation. These results support explain change.