Implications of Australia's Population Policy for Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions Targets

摘要: Australia's high per capita emissions rates makes it is a major emitter of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, but its low intrinsic growth rate means that future increases in population size will be dictated by net overseas immigration. We constructed matrix models and projected the to 2100 under six different immigration scenarios. A constant 1 cent proportional scenario would result 53 million people 2100, producing 30.7 Gt CO2-e over interval. Zero achieve approximate stability mid-century produce 24.1 CO2-e. Achieving 27 reduction annual 2030 require 1.5- 2.0-fold per-capita emissions; an 80 2050 5.8- 10.2-fold reduction. capacity limit therefore depend primarily on massive technological transformation energy sector, business-as-usual make achieving meaningful targets more difficult.