Forecasting Birth and Migration Rates: The Theoretical Foundation

摘要: This chapter presents a review of the social science literature that provides theoretical foundation for forecasting fertility and internal migration. The methodological data problems which must be overcome in implementing theories are explained, modeling strategies suggested, some original empirical work is presented. Methods currently used by U.S. Bureau Census discussed as an example standard demographic approach order to put economic-demographic into perspective. Fertility first then Emphasis on state level, part because barriers even more severe population distribution finer geographical level.