Underestimating malaria risk under variable temperatures

摘要: T he risksposed to human health by vector-borne diseases continue provide grounds for the important exchange of scientific ideas (1, 2). The emerging consensus is that while early attempts model climate driven changes in distribution disease were based on very shaky assumptions, refute them also less than perfect data and limited analyses overemphasized stasis. paper Paaijmans et al. (3) this issue PNAS suggests relationship between malaria even more subtle previously appreciated. If we are assess impact both weather transmission, need a deeper understanding nonlinear ways which biology parasite its mosquito vector integrates temperature fluctuations. authors show diurnal fluctuations can modify parasite's external incubation period inside (“sporogony”), relative estimates coarser temporal resolution daily mean temperatures. In areas where temperatures close threshold completing sporogony (≈16 °C), increasing variance allows development proceed despite nocturnal interruptions, as warm pulses compensate during warmer parts day. However, at other end spectrum, should apace, opposite potentially occur. This transmission models “risk maps” ignore variability will tend underestimate risk cooler environments overestimate areas.