Natural Sampling: Rationality without Base Rates
作者： Gernot D. Kleiter
DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4612-4308-3_27
关键词:
摘要: The Bayesian classification of single cases into classes is investigated. neglect class base rates usually considered to be a fundamental violation the principles rationality and, in human judgment, called ‘the rate fallacy’. This paper analyzes an important special sampling condition which actually turn out irrelevant estimating probabilities. It shown that do not affect precision estimates probability. modeled by second-order probability distribution. Implications for design artificial and modeling natural knowledge systems are discussed.
springer.com
sci-hub.st 参考文章(27)
Jonathan St. B. T. Evans, Bias in human reasoning ,(1989)
D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases ,(1974)
Maya Bar-Hillel, The Base Rate Fallacy Controversy Advances in Psychology. ,vol. 16, pp. 39- 61 ,(1983) , 10.1016/S0166-4115(08)62193-7
David J. Spiegelhalter, A statistical view of uncertainty in expert systems Artificial intelligence and statistics. pp. 313- 331 ,(1986)
Charles R. Gallistel, The organization of learning ,(1990)
Nils-Eric Sahlin, On Higher Order Beliefs Philosophy of Probability; 56, pp 13-34 (1993). ,vol. 56, pp. 13- 34 ,(1993) , 10.1007/978-94-015-8208-7_2
Baruch Fischhoff, Paul Slovic, Sarah Lichtenstein, Subjective sensitivity analysis Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. ,vol. 23, pp. 339- 359 ,(1979) , 10.1016/0030-5073(79)90002-3
J. Aitchison, I. R. Dunsmore, Statistical Prediction Analysis Journal of the American Statistical Association. ,vol. 73, pp. 222- ,(1975) , 10.1017/CBO9780511569647
David J. Spiegelhalter, Steffen L. Lauritzen, Techniques for Bayesian analysis in expert systems Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence. ,vol. 2, pp. 353- 366 ,(1990) , 10.1007/BF01531016
Chezy Ofir, Pseudodiagnosticity in judgment under uncertainty Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. ,vol. 42, pp. 343- 363 ,(1988) , 10.1016/0749-5978(88)90005-2