(RE-) SHAPING THE POLITICAL ARENA? A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF WELFARE REGIME REFORMS IN LATIN AMERICA, 1980-2010

摘要: This dissertation examines the processes and outcomes of welfare regimes reforms in eleven Latin American countries, between 1980 2010. It theorizes by comparing pensions, health care, social assistance policies. In so doing, it confronts three theoretical goals. First, provides an explanation recent transformations as resulting from combined effects gradual institutional change exogenous socioeconomic transformations. Second, explores potentialities limitations historical institutionalism. Third, identifies emerging patterns governance. Mismatches institutions problems trigger reforms, but do not determine options that policy makers finally choose. Frictions caused risks interact with difficulties established to cope old facilitate access public agendas for reformist projects. Ultimately, however, depend on construction pro-and anti-reform coalitions, shaped two main forces: 1) lines discrimination distribution benefits existing regimes; 2) strategies parties, interest groups, bureaucracies, competing activate those cleavages according their interests. Socioeconomic change, fiscal strain, transnational factors, make expansion protection contingent upon redistributions burdens guaranteed resistance groups privileged schemes. The strategic challenge politicians is crafting formulas aimed at simultaneously neutralizing potential veto coalitions mobilizing unprotected populations. requires combining blame-avoidance credit-claiming variably mix persuasion, exclusion, division targeting opposition. Selective pay-offs appease constitute most direct determinants architecture reforms. In explaining I discuss endogenous how this results fragmented However, shocks may changes away expected paths. Certain configurations are also found block consolidation structural entailing drastic discontinuity, leading situations chronic instability serial replacement.