Deriving an emulation model of a rectangular-basin two-layer numerical model

摘要: In the last decades, rapid improvement in processor speed has encouraged development of large, distributed, process-based models, which are implemented more and complex computer codes. However, despite increased computing power, use such models is far from being inexpensive: obtaining output trajectories over a time horizon few years can require many days simulation. As consequence, application for planning management purposes still very limited. What-if analysis, example, i.e. evaluation behavior system against set possible scenarios, be applied to only when number scenarios small, as each model simulation prohibitively consuming. Furthermore, integration into an optimization scheme is, at state art, essentially impracticable. recent years, emulation modeling emerged promising technique overcome these limitations. An simple, usually lumped model, identified synthetic data generated via computationally inefficient that used its place run fast simulations optimization. Emulation largely employed aerospace mechanical engineering emerging issue environmental modeling, especially field air quality. Applications water systems mainly concern control diffuse pollution groundwater soils. this paper, techniques extended hydrodynamics, namely stratified lakes. The ultimate scope allow indirect hydrodynamic purposes, closing gap between scientific-oriented research decision-making practice. applicability approach tested simplified but rather realistic case study: one-dimensional, nonlinear, two-layer rectangular basin. simulated generate series thermocline displacement equilibrium position, function wind action, different conditions stratification (i.e. layers density). These develop simple model. Precisely, AutoRegressive-eXogenous (ARX) identified, with parameter settings estimated condition. Although provides accurate estimate selected variable. Moreover, parameters provided physically meaningful interpretation. results motivate further extend sophisticated hydrodynamics resources.