India: A New Tiger on the Block?

摘要: After three decades of inward-oriented development, India has made a decisive switch in its trade and foreign investment policies. Beginning July 1991, the country systematically liberalized economy. Though pace reform may appear gradual to observers Eastern Europe, changes last years evoke disbelief when viewed context India's own past. Prior complex maze quantitative restrictions, foreign-exchange controls tariff rates averaging well over 120 percent (and rising as high 400 percent) characterized policy. Today, virtually all import quotas except those on consumer goods few intermediate inputs capital are gone, rupee is convertible current account, capped at 65 percent. Equally important, P.V. Narasimha Rao government shows no signs looking back, continued progressive track presenting major with every budget since beginning program. not only most populated democracy world, it also one developing countries that functioned true for more than four decades. This fact makes experience economic unique. Unlike authoritarian states, democratic must mobilize public opinion favor new Major policy face formidable challenges from entrenched interests even advanced democracies such United States, was demonstrated during fierce debate North American Free Trade Agreement. In India, country, this challenge bigger partially responsible delay implementation reforms. The central purpose paper analyze years. I look have occurred, study their impact, evaluate management make suggestions future changes. pursuit objective, draw upon recent China. A full understanding process requires knowledge past policies regime inherited. Therefore, section one, reviews evolution up June 1991. two, describe reforms undertaken these were recently, February 1994 1994-95 March annual modifications Export-Import Policy 1992-97. third assesses impact reform, particularly opinion. fourth evaluates critically asks questions whether too slow exchange rate been satisfactorily managed. Finally, offer It should be noted outset introduced extend far beyond external sector. scope paper, however, limited refers domestic regulatory they bear trade.(2) EVOLUTION OF THE CONTROLLED REGIME(3) Several factors combined create perpetuate inherited by present government. First, initiated development program 1950s, Soviet Union regarded success story model follow. Based experience, economists makers nearly unanimous that, poor planning essential allocate economy's resources efficiently. Without much hesitation, chose path planned development. Although strategy did help catalyze growth long run, created an machinery developed mindset naturally receptive controls. …