Monetary Policy Indeterminacy in the U.S.: Results from a Classical Test

摘要: We work with a newly developed method to empirically assess whether specified new-Keynesian business cycle monetary model estimated U.S. quarterly data is consistent unique equilibrium or multiple equilibria under rational expectations. conduct classical tests verify if the structural correctly specified. Conditional on positive answer, we formally such either indeterminacy. Importantly, our full-system approach requires neither use of prior distributions nor that nonstandard inference. The case an indeterminate in pre-1984 sample and determinate post-1984 favored by data. long-run coefficients inflation output gap policy rule are found be weakly identified. However, results further supported proposed identification-robust indicator