México 2050: backcasting for a sustainable future

摘要: The overall aim of this study is to present a possibility attaining future which fulfills the requirements sustainable energy sector within Mexico. But, what considered sector? In research it will be interpreted as an 85%-50% reduction in CO2eq emissions from by year 2050 2000 levels; whilst assuring secure supply available everybody, due analogy previously made sections 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4. During 2000, associated Mexico accounted for 387.33 MtCO2eq 336.95 MtCO2 (60.18% total GHG emissions). sense, assuming 85% order avoid aforementioned impacts temperature rise stabilizing CO2 atmospheric concentrations between 350 400 ppm, would need 58.1 2050. If 50% assumed, 193.66 MtCO2eq. target left open such range, so that audience free decide mitigation more appropriate depending on knowledge driving forces go beyond scope study. On other hand, allows accessible, consequently correlated social development. This fact heavily depends fossil fuels cover its needs; whereas possible emergence peak oil crisis near could reflected limited access country. For this, two scenarios are created, Business As Usual (BAU), pictures may happen if we continue develop under current trends, and; one normative scenario done backcasting approach, envisions throughout stated aims introduces set strategies how attain it. Thus, purpose images coupled with some recommendations them departing situation; stimulate decision-makers society general take insight into changes required achieve sustainability Mexican sector. On decreasing contributes global effort against climate change sustainability.