Predicted eelgrass response to sea level rise and its availability to foraging Black Brant in Pacific coast estuaries

摘要: Managers need to predict how animals will respond habitat redistributions caused by climate change. Our objective was model the effects of sea level rise on total eelgrass (Zostera marina) area and amount that is accessible Brant geese (Branta bernicla), specialist grazers eelgrass. Digital elevation models were developed for seven estuaries from Alaska, Washington, California (USA), Mexico. Scenarios future derived combinations estuarine specific sediment tectonic rates (i.e., bottom change rate) with three eustatic (ESLR). Percentages areas foraging determined December when birds overwinter at more southerly sites in April as they move north where build body stores their way nesting Alaska. The modeling showed could be lower than due daytime low-tide height, shoot length, upper Brant-reaching depth. Projections indicated present-day ESLR (2.8 mm/yr) should sustain current pattern use except Morro Bay, decrease because being ejected this estuary a positive rate. Higher (6.3 12.7 result less northern southern ends flyway, particularly during winter, but mid-latitude estuaries. capacity function feeding refugia, or these Izembek Lagoon provide drift rather attached leaves, eventually limited area, which light extinction affect eelgrass, pushed out rates. Management responses are increase supply relocation levees allow upslope migration habitat.