摘要: INTRODUCTION Disease Processes Statistical Approaches to Epidemiological Data Causality Overview MEASURES OF DISEASE OCCURRENCE Prevalence and Incidence rates THE ROLE PROBABILITY IN OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES Simple Random Samples Probability the Proportion Inference Based on an Estimated Conditional Probabilities Example of Probabilities-Berkson's Bias DISEASE-EXPOSURE ASSOCIATION Relative Risk Odds Ratio The as Approximation Symmetry Roles Exposure in Hazard Excess Attributable STUDY DESIGNS Population-Based Studies Exposure-Based Sampling-Cohort Disease-Based Sampling-Case-Control Key Variants Case-Control Design ASSESSING SIGNIFICANCE A 2 x TABLE Designs Cohort ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE FOR CAUSAL EXTRANEOUS FACTORS: CONFOUNDING INTERACTION Causal Graphs Controlling Confounding Collapsibility over Strata CONTROL FACTORS Summary Test Association a Series Tables Estimates Confidence Intervals for Ratio, Adjusting confounding Factors Risk, Further Discussion Multiplicative Additive Interaction Counterfactuals Consistency across Extreme EXPOSURES AT SEVERAL DISCRETE LEVELS Overall Example-Coffee Drinking Pancreatic Cancer: Part 3 Trend Example-The Western Collaborative Group Study: 6 4 Adjustment Confounding, Exact Tests, REGRESSION MODELS RELATING EXPOSURE TO Some Introductory Regression Models Log Linear Model Probit Logistic Examples with Binary Multiple LOGISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS Likelihood Function 7 5 WITHIN Assessment Using Introducing into 9 Collinearity Centering Variables Restrictions Effective Use Maximum Techniques GOODNESS FIT TESTS BUILDING Choosing Scale Variable Building Goodness Fit MATCHED Frequency Matching Pair Example-Pregnancy Spontaneous Abortion Relation Coronary Heart Women Effects Matched Effect Birth Order Respiratory Distress Syndrome Twins ALTERNATIVES EXTENSIONS Flexible Beyond Outcomes Independent Observations General Formulation Hazard-The Cox Fitting When Does Time at Confound Exposure-Disease Relationship? EPILOGUE: EXAMPLES REFERENCES GLOSSARY COMMON TERMS ABBREVIATIONS INDEX Each chapter also contains sections Problems Reading.