Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

摘要: Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective future climatic changes increasing need for systematic evaluation and extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens households, businesses governments. Research ADAM project identified direct risks terms potential crop asset losses due combined drought heatwave, as well flood hazards Southern Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on indirect, medium longer term economic triggered by mediated responses. We present selection three impact adaptation assessments modelling studies undertaken event Europe. Responding more economically based assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such understanding past adaptation, role market response impacts government’s ability plan share out risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration observed agricultural sector UK comparing consecutive over time order determine whether occurred this can be used inform estimates rates. find that farmers clearly have adapted time, but rate maintained into is unclear, autonomous enacted seemed rather easy taken. Markets may mediate or amplify second analysis, use general equilibrium model assess effects reduction production heatwave risk exposed regions Spain. suggests modelled local economy are serious large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces also affected events. supply-side induced price increase leading passing disaster costs consumers. simulation highlights importance paying particular attention spatial distributional weather extremes possibly therein incur. Finally, discuss how national governments better their liabilities resulting from manage relief reconstruction activities post event. do so using planning assessing fiscal consequences associated coping natural extremes. identify large contingent liabilities, particularly key hot spot countries Austria, Romania, Hungary. Such (“hidden deficits”) interacting weak conditions lead additional stress government budgets reduced space funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our respecting specific temporal characteristics generating information decisions. As decisions considered, sovereign financing instruments short horizon, largely today’s does not detail projections change. raise important uncertainty, which instances actually render non-robust, constraint kept mind addressing decisions, at same should account both socioeconomic