The interpretation of secular Caspian Sea level records during the Holocene

摘要: Abstract The Caspian Sea (CS) experienced significant changes during the Holocene. standard deviation for level (CSL) variations over that interval is estimated as σ = 1.4 m. Based on well-established views, they were climate-induced variations. There are no clear links with calendar of climatic anomalies, and climate models do not reproduce changes. Therefore, question about origin “secular” CSL fluctuations remains open. general ideas laws temporal dynamics relating to massive inertial objects, observed slow under semi-steady state Holocene can be represented resulting from accumulation small anomalies in water regime, a kind “self-developing” system. To test this hypothesis, model balance CS was used. Time scale sea ∼20 years. This interpreted stochastic, perspective, it Langevin equation incorporates action precipitation evaporation random white noise, so whole thought an analogue Brownian motion. Under these conditions, by system undergoing walk. Modeling results probabilistic point view, although deterministically based physical law conservation mass. showed steady conditions characterized σ = 1.1 m, close empirical value. “Super-large” prohibited theory, but their development requires correspondingly long time. However, periods time, background change, uniformity process becomes disrupted. large transgressive/regressive stages different. For example, low stand Enotaevkian Regression LGM determined reduction Volga River catchment corresponding volume river runoff. Hence, modeling results, possibility “self-development” effects theory: there need any cause specific or shifts, merely expected behavior red noise processes.