On the spatial correlation of international conflict initiation and other binary and dyadic dependent variables

摘要: Abstract We examine spatially correlated interregional flows measured as binary choice outcomes. Since the dependent variable is not only and dyadic, but also correlated, we propose a spatial origin–destination probit model Bayesian estimation methodology that avoids inconsistent maximum likelihood estimates. apply to militarized interstate dispute initiations, observations of which are clearly dyadic may be due their geographic distribution. Using cross-section 26 European countries drawn from period leading up WWII, find empirical evidence for target-based correlation sizable network effects resulting correlation. In particular, effect national military capability potential aggressor, significant determinant conflict in either case, overstated benchmark ignores This further differentiated by location country.