VAR Models for Dynamic Analysis of Prices in the Agri-food System

摘要: An adequate understanding of the dynamics that characterize agri-food market is fundamental for development really efficient economic policies, especially after two recent hikes in prices food commodities. The econometric literature provides today advanced analysis tools such as VAR models: these models are based on a system equations which each variable regressed set deterministic variables, number lags related to covariate model. To test effectiveness this analytical tool at dealing with issues economy, we applied major and energy commodities (oil biodiesel) referring period January 2000–December 2012. Our results identified statistically significant intertemporal relationships between price corn, soybean oil, rapeseed suggested direction relationships; could conclude corn soybeans influenced mainly market. Moreover, focused United States variables share used production biofuels: observe important alterations due convenience producing ethanol biodiesel, since portion crops direct competition devoted feeding. This kind model, therefore, deals adequately data an basis develop policies can take into account complexity global system.