Using dynamic ecological-economic modelling to facilitate Deliberative Multicriteria Evaluation (DMCE) in quantifying and communicating bio-invasion uncertainty

摘要: Uncertainty is a ubiquitous feature of biosecurity and for this reason managing invasive species has long been reactive business. In order to move towards proactive management it critical communicate uncertainties the stakeholders. The uncertainty components exist not only in biological but also socio-economic processes during an invader's entry, establishment, spread impact creation. A STELLA model was developed capture dynamics socio-ecological system estimate expected economic costs apple maggot (Rhagoletis pomonella) over next 30 years entire country Australia. Like complex climate models, cannot be meaningfully calibrated because simulating never before experienced state system. Therefore inappropriate apply generic techniques which utilize observations calibrate models forecast cost bio-invasion real world. Instead forecasting, more proper use as communication tool uncertainty, organizes our existing understanding present "what if" scenarios front stakeholders DMCE environment. One major modelling outputs, potential maggot, used criterion. participants were asked weigh same criterion twice, after exposed discussed. effectiveness examined by comparing average group weights standard deviation individual injection. Preliminary results showed that parameter mean weight did change significantly yet become smaller. We hypothesized could anchoring effect: one most important criteria therefore exposure would make much difference weighting. decreased dispersion among participants, reflected smaller weights, indicated building consensus. This certainly area future research. integrated modelling-DMCE approach seeks combine advantages dynamic providing systematic analysis with benefits DMCE. ecological-economic modeling offers objective way organizing data synthesizing knowledge. allows participatory decision-making process active involvement commitment from participants. effective quantifying communicating bioinvasion