Expected utility and non-expected utility models of risky choice: a new framework and estimation results

摘要: In recent years there has been a growing recognition that conventional models of travellers decision making need to be extended accommodate the fact are often uncertain regarding outcome their decisions. The classical approach study risky choice is expected utility theory (EUT). At last year's AET Conference, Polak and Liu proposed framework for integrating EUT random (RUT) in consistent fashion showed developed within (ERUT) have empirical advantages compared existing ad hoc applications transport contexts. However, known several weaknesses as descriptive human behaviour many alternative theories proposed. related work reported at IATBR Michea Polak, with derived from number including Prospective Reference Theory, Weighted Utility Rank-dependent Cumulative Prospect Theory. Although considerable diversity amongst these alternative, non-expected (NEUT), they all share common feature which relax assumption, fundamental EUT, when evaluating prospects, makers manipulate probabilities strictly according laws probability. results indicate some NEUT can offer significant improvement models. despite this progress, important issues remain outstanding. This paper focuses on three issues. first based approaches date not properly integrated RUT. second undertaken date, researchers only considered situations one source uncertainty affecting outcomes, whereas reality outcomes typically arise interaction different sources uncertainty. third evidence literature relative performance ERUT very limited datasets. we set out an extension resulting (NERUT) subsumes provides basis systematic comparison treatment choice. We apply compare using data recently completed stated preference exercise, investigated effect travel time variability mode day work, two linked exercises were carried out; involving between comparisons respondents exposed options characterised by single times. exercise involved enables us explore whether or risk prospect evaluated mathematical expectation but also combined law present range discuss implications valuation changes variability. For covering abstract see ITRD E137145.