How Sampling-Based Overdispersion Undermines India’s Tiger Monitoring Orthodoxy

摘要: Abstract Conservation agencies entrusted with recovery of iconic mammals may exaggerate population trends without adequate scientific evidence. Recently, such populations were termed as ‘political populations’ in the conservation literature. We surmise that political emerge when are pressured to report abundances at large spatial scales for species difficult survey. Indian tiger use an experimental approach called double-sampling using index-calibration models. A recent, mathematical, study demonstrated unreliability this context India’s tigers. Yet, continues be applied and even promoted by global other range countries. In article, we aim to: (1) discuss ecological oddities emerging from results national surveys, (2) demystify mathematics underlying problems survey methodology (3) confront these findings recent 2014. Our analyses show predictions abundance sign-based indices reported 2014 fact vary greatly can severely misleading confirming presence high sampling-based overdispersion parameter covariance. call initiatives implement monitoring methods designed clearly answer, a priori, or management objectives instead potentially implementing them reactions extraneous, social fund raising pressures.