A Prediction Market for Toxic Assets Prices

摘要: We propose the development of a prediction market for forecasting prices "toxic assets" to be transferred from Irish banks National Asset Management Agency (NAMA). Such allows participants assume stake in security whose value is tied future event. that securities are created hinges on transfer amount paid loans NAMA bank. In essence, bets accepted whether price higher or lower than certain quoted figure. The represent toxic assets increases decreases line with opinion. Prediction markets offer proven means aggregating distributed knowledge pertaining fair values scalable and transparent manner. They incentive compatible (i.e. induce truthful reporting) robust strategic manipulation. run parallel pricing procedure recommended by European Commission. This need not necessarily take heed view all cases but it may guidance anomaly detection. An online would everybody an opportunity "have their say" open