Prediction of precipitation deficit and excess in Bydgoszcz Region in view of predicted climate change/ Prognoza niedoboru i nadmiaru opadu w rejonie Bydgoszczy w świetle przewidywanej zmiany klimatu

摘要: The paper presents the prediction of rainfall shortage and excess in Bydgoszcz region growing seasons (April–September) 2011–2050 perspective climate change. Based on predicted monthly sum precipitations for percentile 50%, calculated by regional model RM5.1 Poland with boundary values taken from global ARPEGE, a decrease amount during season approximately 55 mm is predicted, compared to 1971–2000 as reference period. qualification was made using standardised precipitation index (SPI). According SPI, occurrence 38 months 40 deficit period predicted. Dry will constitute 16% all months, wet – 13%, normal 71%. 13 several-month long periods 14 such drought are longest both dry weather last 5 months. So expected 2020, 2022 2031, 2017–2018, 2023–2024 2046 2049.