The Regional Ice Prediction System (RIPS): verification of forecast sea ice concentration

摘要: In recent years, the demand for improved environmental forecasts in Arctic has intensified as maritime transport and offshore exploration increase. As a result, Canada accepted responsibility preparation issuing services new MET/NAV Areas XVII XVIII. Environmental are being developed based on integrated marine prediction system. Here, we present first phase of this initiative, short-term pan-Arctic 1/12° resolution Regional Ice Prediction System (RIPS). RIPS is currently set to perform four 48 h per day. The forecast model (CICE 4.0) forced by atmospheric from Environment regional deterministic It initialized with 3D-Var analysis sea ice concentration velocity field thickness distribution previous forecast. other forcing (surface current) initialization fields (mixed-layer depth, surface temperature salinity) come 1/4° Global Ocean System. Three verification methods presented. Overall, verifications over complete seasonal cycle (2011) against Mapping extent product show that better than persistence during growth season while they have lower skill melt period. A representation landfast ice, oceanic processes (wave–ice interactions, upwelling events, etc.) marginal zone initializing should lead forecasts.