Global Economic and Food Security Impacts of Demand-Driven Water Scarcity—Alternative Water Management Options for a Thirsty World

摘要: Global freshwater demand will likely continue its expansion under current expectations of economic and population growth. Withdrawals in regions which are already water-scarce impose further pressure on the renewable water resource base threatening long-term availability across many activities dependent this for various functions. This paper assesses economy-wide implications demand-driven scarcity a ‘middle-of-the-road’ socio-economic development pathway by considering trade-offs between macroeconomic food security impacts. The study employs global CGE model comprising an advanced level detail regarding uses allows sector-specific endogenous adaptation to scarcity. A sustainable withdrawal threshold is imposed with extended river-basin overexploitation (India, South Asia, Middle East, Northern Africa) whilst different management options considered through four alternative allocation methods users. scale effects relative size sectors low-water productivity, amount these sectors, flexibility important users substitute away from inputs conditions largest negative GDP deviations obtained scenarios limited mobility re-allocate significant alleviation when patterns shifted based differences however, imposition prospects.