Technology forecasting for commodity projections: A case study on the effect of substitution by aluminum on the future demand for copper

摘要: Abstract This paper deals with the possible use of technology forecasting in commodity projection and, to a lesser extent, resource allocation for research and development. As specific example, was used estimate effect substitution copper by aluminum on future demand 1980 1990. identify extracting from clay; which could be especially useful developing countries. Basic predictions were made functional units major common end uses 1990, including electrical conductor heat exchanger applications. The amounts required each application 1990 estimated three scenarios. In first these, is assumed take place according logistic type function, resulting predicted 3.70 million tons 4.91 second scenario, progress at past linear rates, 4.3 6.41 third no further assumed, 4.81 7.77 effective date monitoring that produced these July 1974, are current as date. then forecasts U.S. Bureau Mines other agencies using compound growth regression models, corresponded unlikely scenario substitution, therefore needed correction view anticipated technological changes.