A generic method to assess species exploratory potential under climate change

摘要: Abstract Climate, by altering the spatio-temporal distributions of suitable habitats, leads to modifications in a multitude species ranges. In recent years, ability adjust changing climatic conditions is growing concern. present study, generic trait-based method assess exploratory potential under climate change proposed. “Exploratory potential” here defined as capacity initiate act leaving their current habitats and reach new ones outside range, at rate fast enough keep pace with change. The presented based on calculation Exploratory Potential Index (EPI), metric that combines several life-history traits into single numeric value. Both coefficients variables this composite are flexible. They depend set consideration through two-step participatory expert-based procedure. A panel experts species’ biology, ecology conservation first be constituted. Then, separately consulted validate integrated EPI index asked rank importance these relative each other following an Analytic Hierarchy Process. Coefficients scores given credibility distribution using Bayesian inference model. Anadromous chosen application case. Scripts raw survey data made available readers ease applications groups.