Establishing conservation baselines with dynamic distribution models for bat populations facing imminent decline

摘要: Aim Bat mortality rates from white-nose syndrome and wind power development are unprecedented. Cryptic wide-ranging behaviours of bats make them difficult to survey, population estimation is often intractable. We advance a model-based framework for making spatially explicit predictions about summertime distributions capture acoustic surveys. Motivated by species-energy life-history theory, our models describe hypotheses spatio-temporal variation in bat along environmental gradients attributes, providing statistical basis conservation decision-making. Location Oregon Washington, USA. Methods We developed Bayesian hierarchical 14 species an 8-year monitoring dataset across ~430,000 km2 study area. Models accounted imperfect detection were temporally dynamic. mapped predicted occurrence probabilities prediction uncertainties as baselines assessing future declines. Results Forest cover, snag abundance cliffs important predictors most species. Species patterns varied elevation precipitation gradients, suggesting potential hump-shaped diversity–productivity relationship. Annual turnover was generally low, stable among found modest evidence that covaried with the relative riskiness roosting migration. The fringed myotis (Myotis thysanodes), canyon (Parastrellus hesperus) pallid (Antrozous pallidus) rare; declined over period. simulated anticipated declines demonstrate probabilities, updated time, provide intuitive way assess status broad audience. Main conclusions Landscape keystone structures associated habitat emerged regionally distributions. challenges have constrained previous distribution modelling efforts static presence-only approaches. Our approach extends broader spatial temporal scales than has been possible past bats, substantial increase capacity conservation.