Exploring the hydrological impact of increasing urbanisation on a tropical river catchment of the metropolitan Jakarta, Indonesia

摘要: Abstract Tropical river catchments face water resource challenges, as populations and urban footprints grow exponentially. It is acknowledged that deforestation of upstream watersheds urbanisation pressure generally lead to an intensification extreme flow events, such floods droughts, but processes groundwater recharge evapotranspiration are also affected, leading a broader impact on balance. In this respect, the Ciliwung River basin – flowing through Jakarta, capital city Indonesia represents exemplary case tropical catchment experiencing alteration hydrological regime consequence highly impacting land use changes following rapid urbanisation. The Jakarta situated downstream has experienced catastrophic at increasing frequency (1996, 2002, 2007, 2013), continued in middle upper stream may further alter response, increased flood risk lower aquifer, which source drinking for large part population. This study explores effects associated with drastic region response river, by showing how modern simulations tools can provide insights about effect policies. To end, distributed analysis different scenarios performed. Watershed realisation these simulated means model, allows physically spatially explicit simulation major across entire basin. Specifically, we used model test two hypothetical plausible future cover correspond uncontrolled expansion, scenario strong constraints combined afforestation catchment. Results suggest expansion leads noticeable increase events during rainy season, decrease base dry season. budget components discussed view implications resources availability rehabilitation corridor.