Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options

摘要: Abstract Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have the potential to reduce green house gas emissions from transport sector. However, limited range of PEVs could impede their market introduction. Still some users are willing pay more for PEVs. The combined effect these and other influencing factors as well resulting future evolution unclear. Here, we study in Germany until 2020. Our results reveal a great deal uncertainty due external conditions users’ willingness pay. We find share German passenger car stock 0.4% almost 3% by Energy prices large impact on PEV 25% increase fuel would double number 2020 compared reference scenario. special depreciation allowance commercial subsidy 1000 Euro most effective efficient monetary policy options. high implies that policies foster diffusion should be dynamically adaptable react changing framework conditions.