Agricultural water use sustainability assessment in the Tarim River basin under climatic risks

摘要: Proper agricultural water management in arid regions is the key to tackling climatic risks. However, an effective assessment of current response climate change use precondition for a group adaptation strategy. The paper, taking Tarim River basin (TRB) as example, aims examine sustainability resource increase caused by variability. In order describe result, groundwater has been estimated based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)–Noah land surface model (NOAH) data. better understand relationship between consumption, stress index established. Agricultural severe state during whole period, although it alleviated somewhat mid–late period. This paper illustrates that supply could not satisfy production expansion. Thus, seasonal loss regional shortage occurred. Particularly 2008 2009, sharp directly led serious drop nearly 20 mm from end 2009 early 2010. At same time, scarcity basin, because which was mainly distributed around Source Rivers, resulted break-off discharge mainstream. Therefore, development unsustainable context under Under control irrigation, spatial temporal allocation optimization sustainable basin.