わが国の男児出生割合の年次変動に対する年齢―時代―コホート効果と2008年～2027年の男児出生割合の将来予測
作者： Hiroyuki UCHIDA , Mayo WATANABE , Maho NAIKI , Junta ITO , Kazuo OHTAKE
DOI: 10.1265/JJH.66.582
关键词:
摘要: OBJECTIVES To determine the age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects on male proportion in Japanese newborns, we performed an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis this study. In addition, projections for were analyzed. METHODS We obtained data live births of newborns women 1947-2007 from National Vital Statistics. Cohort tables containing analyzed using a Bayesian APC model. Projections (2008-2027) calculated. RESULTS The age effect decreased when mothers 40-44 years old; however, was relatively limited as compared with period cohort effects. increased 1947 to 1969 thereafter. Analysis trends revealed decreasing slope birth cohorts born between 1905 1945 subsequent increase after 1958. indicated that 2027 would be similar 1970s. CONCLUSIONS mother hardly affected proportion. started latter half 1960s. This may attributable high economic growth since 1965 promoted industrial development led environmental pollution, which turn have lead deterioration intrauterine environment. changed 1958 exhibited toward proportion; due improvements obstetric care. Our results suggest will future.
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