Gains and losses of plant species and phylogenetic diversity for a northern high‐latitude region

摘要: Aim Forecasting potential patterns in species’ distributions and diversity under climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Although high-latitude regions are expected to experience some of the greatest increases temperature due global warming, little known on how individual responses species will affect phylogenetic (PD). Location Alberta, Canada. Methods We used 160,589 occurrence records 1541 seed plants Alberta (nearly 90% province's flora) ensemble niche models project current future suitable habitats. We then examined vulnerability impacts richness, PD both taxonomic endemism (PE). also assessed whether predicted losses were distributed randomly across plant tree life. Results We found that 368 (24%) may lose average > 80% their climates (habitats), while 539 (35%) projected more than double range. Both richness increase most areas, except species-rich Rocky Mountains, which declines. Maps PE identified several with high conservation value threat suggesting priorities adaptation. Overall, a non-random extinction risk was Alberta's flora, demonstrating loss evolutionary history. Main conclusions Our analyses suggest have asymmetrical effects distribution state history. Our results provide practical guidance management this region by prioritizing species' vulnerabilities places higher or change.