Future Changes of Wildfire Danger Variability and Their Relationship with Land and Atmospheric Interactions over East Asia Using Haines Index

摘要: Many studies have related the recent variations of wildfire regime such as increasing number occurrances, their patterns and timing changes, severity extreme cases with global warming. However, there are only a few numbers to assess how future will change in interactions between land atmosphere climate especially over East Asia. This study was performed estimate changing aspect danger warming, using Haines Index (HI). Calculated from atmospheric instability dryness, HI is potential an existing fire become dangerous wildfire. Using Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model, two separated 5-year simulations current (1995~1999) far (2095~2099) were analyzed. Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) model outputs utilized for inputs past Asia; prediction driven under IPCC A1B scenario. The results indicate changes regime, showing overall decreasing but intensified regional deviations north south. seems stem dryness which sensitive soil moisture variation. In some locations, decreases summer increases winter or fall when actual occurrence generally peaked South China.