Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results
作者： Desmond Mwembe , Lizwe Sibanda , Ndava Constantine Mupondo
DOI: 10.11648/J.AJTAS.20150403.15
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摘要: The study seeks to construct a profitable betting strategy for soccer results by developing bivariate Poisson model the analysis and computation of probabilities football match outcomes. dependence coefficient is estimated from Monte Carlo simulation scoring intensities are log-linear model. hypothesis tests show that home-ground effect exists some, but not all teams in Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League. rule place bet on outcome particular when model's probabilistic forecast suggests sufficient edge over bookmaker's implied probability.
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