Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania.

摘要: Rapid rates of land use and cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa limited instances genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities decision makers challenge the development robust pathways toward future environmental socioeconomic sustainability. We a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) present (2000-2018) LULCC northern Tanzania simulate four scenarios year 2030. Simulations used spatial integrate stakeholders' perceptions with social data on recent trends LULCC. From perspectives, between 1959 2018, was by climate variability, availability natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth legislation governing access resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political drivers, stakeholders envisioned from 2018 2030 will largely be health, economic capital, political implementing plans policies. The projected suggest agricultural have expanded 8-20% under different herbaceous vegetation forest reduced 2.5-5% 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures as those improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, better farming techniques. undesirable were characterized degradation, poverty, loss. Insights our work identify implications conservation meeting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) targets Kesho approach capitalizes knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, process promotes learning, provides sense ownership outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, improves quality relevance outputs.