The political economy of secessionism:identity, inequality and the state

摘要: The econometric study of civil war is increasing recognized to suffer from problems ‘overaggregation’. As such, there a high risk estimation biases, ecological fallacies, and endogeneity problems. In this paper, I seek contribute the disaggregation by focusing on socio-economic dynamics secessionist conflict as an identifiably distinct subset ‘civil wars’, using new subnational dataset compiled for purpose. test series hypotheses relating conditions that encourage secessionism political institutions might mediate it. contrast mainstream literature war, find very strong predictive role measure ethnic diversity in accounting incidence secession. also relatively straightforward set socioeconomic relationships. relationship between relative performance non-linear: regions ‘horizontal inequalities’—whether poor or rich—in relation rest country are more prone secessionism. presence hydrocarbon deposits dramatically increases likelihood But institutional story complex contingent upon interaction effect with degree level horizontal inequality. Corresponding Author Dr Graham K. Brown Centre Development Studies University Bath, BA2 7AY, UK Email: g.k.brown@bath.ac.uk